Sunday, October 14, 2012

What's the Argument Against the US Navy's Sustainable Fuels Program About?

The House Took Action Against the US Navy's Use of Biofuels ...but why?

The US House of Representatives, our agency in the US Government that is in change of our money and commerce, has openly opposed the use by the US Navy of Biofuels for ship operations and for aircraft fuel. Their argument is that it is too expensive, however we can't prove the technical or operational merit of these fuels without a broader testing of them in real time exercises. Recently Congress redressed the fleet logistics teams for purchasing fuel for an extended operation  that would demonstrate the use of these bio-sources fuels and their ability to provide full operational capabilities for fleet assets. Their reason: they complained about the cost of these fuels as compared to the standard fossil fuel products that the Navy is trying to break free of.

Is there an ulterior motive? Perhaps...as the House is Republican controlled and the Republican Party is more supportive of the oil industry then the Democrats, but is this wise? Consider that a sea based fleet able to replenish its fuels from domestically sources bio fuels, or fuels produced from the sea...that type of fleet replenishment is worth its weight in  ... well, fuel! And proving the technology now, while we still have ample supplies of fossil fuels is a much better circumstance than trying to create and prove the use of these future fuels once the fossil fuel pipelines have gone dry.

Making Jet Fuel from Seawater

The seawater comes into play as a source of raw ingredients for liquid jet fuel, namely carbon dioxide and hydrogen. Though it may seem counter-intuitive, according to NRL, drawing carbon dioxide from seawater can actually be more efficient than using airborne carbon dioxide, because the concentration of carbon dioxide in seawater is 140 times greater than in air.
To split the carbon dioxide and hydrogen away from other elements in seawater, NRL has been developing an electrochemical acidification cell based on chlorine dioxide. It works by using small amounts of electricity to acidify seawater, forming sodium hydroxide.
With the carbon dioxide and hydrogen in hand, the next step is an iron-based catalyst that NRL has tweaked to reduce the production of methane gas (an undesirable byproduct) while producing more hydrocarbons called olefins. Another step in the process converts the olefins to a liquid, and a final step using nickel-based catalysts converts the liquid to a form suitable for jet fuel.
With portability in mind, the research team has been working on a self-contained system that includes a power supply, pump and other accessories, all fitting into a movable skid measuring only 3 feet wide, 5 feet long, and 5 feet high.
"Green" Fleet Refueling at Sea
So far, tests in the lab indicate that the process could produce jet fuel costing in the range of $3 to $6 per gallon. The next hurdle is to give the process a spin in open waters.

Jet Fuel from Seawater: Who Could Hate It?

Aside from the security of domestically and independently sourced fuels, non-petroleum fuel options also enable the Navy to avail itself of fuel supplies from allies around the globe. That’s especially critical as the U.S. turns its attention from the Middle East to the Pacific theater, where the Australian biofuel industry could play a key role.
With China and Japan at loggerheads over ownership of an island and Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz, now is hardly the time for the party of “support our troops” to undermine U.S. credibility as the world’s most advanced, agile and powerful fighting force at sea.
However, that is exactly what’s happening.
Last spring, Republican leadership in Congress tried to monkeywrench the Navy’s ambitious biofuel program by prohibiting the Department of Defense from purchasing alternative fuels that cost more than conventional fuels, or from building its own biorefineries.
The Navy promptly leaped those hurdles with support from the Obama Administration, in the form of new grants for research leading to low-cost biofuels in partnership with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and new biofuel refineries built by private sector partners.
That’s why we’re calling the seawater-to-fuel research Round 3, as the Navy ramps up its efforts to insulate its fighting forces from the logistical burden of fossil fuel and the fiscal burden of global oil markets, despite pushback against alternative fuels from, primarily, leadership in the Republican Party.

Clean Technica (http://s.tt/1onRH)

Friday, October 12, 2012

What is the Impact of Climate Change?


Climate Change is effecting us all
What is the impact of Climate Change...caused by Global Warming... on our economy? Monsoons are not new, but what is new is that they are impacting the planet through being much more forceful and lasting longer... Droughts are not new either, but their impact is becoming increasingly felt in places like the Russian and American grain regions. Corn and soy, modern crops designed to yield plenty for the world, are reported as below expected yields in most regions...wheat too...all due to Climate Change.
 
Have we (humankind) caused it? The earth is in a natural warming cycle and we didn't cause that.
 
Have we accelerated it? Yes...we have. Our inventions, mostly powered by carbon rich fuels, have released thousands of time more carbon per day than natural processes do, and as a result we have increased the heating trend. Today we are seeing massive ice melts and changes in the atmospheric currents that drive climate effects...we are impacting Climate Change and as the processes in play take an expanse of time to slow or delay...well, we can expect to see permafrost melting for the next few centuries along with all the other trends and that's just the case..
 


Monsoons are not going to go away.
So, can we change it? No, that's not in the cards...the natural warming trend covers centuries and our impact has increased the speed with which this trend is advancing. At best, if we act now to correct the carbon pollution that we are causing, and by doing that we can slow its advance ...potentially back to its natural speed, though the impact that we have registered will stay in play unless we devise ways to safely remove the greenhouse gases from our atmosphere.
What is the economic impact...well, that isn't quite clear, but consider this. On top of the agricultural impact we have to look at the coming floods. Monsoons cited here point out that natural trends are becoming worse, but in the developed world we are seeing climate impact on our waterways and more. Flooding is getting worse because rain is increasing with the change in climate flow. From that we are seeing increased insurance claims...to the tune of Billions of Dollars more per year. What we can say is that the economics of Climate Change are huge... more than we can imagine, and for those who act to correct the trend there may be economic advantage.
 
We can spotlight many impact ares ... for example...Cities are finding new threats for things like rain runoff and drainage...when the sea rises...drainage flow changes...backs up...floods whole communities... Imagine the Venice Effect occurring in Baltimore or Madrid...the bright spot of course is that a whole new trend may emerge for building boats and offering jobs as gondola operators.
 
We can't stop global warming, its a natural cycle that we will have to deal with, but we can moderate the immediate impact and slow the progression by returning to more natural carbon release levels...that we can do.
 
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Monday, October 8, 2012

Investment thoughts about a Solar Bubble

A Solar Bubble is the colapse of the production base for Solar Panels...not a change in our policy for using Solar as part of our energy mix. The potential for a bubble threatens the investments that are going into this industry and the kick back that would cause against our economies.

Let's take a moment and consider the rapid global growth of solar panel development and production. Companies, nations really...have jumped on-board the Solar Express...so to speak...and are making panels at a very rapid pace. Taking Germany as an example, all new buildings must have a solar array on the roof...and in Japan they have declared that they will be off of nuclear, their primary source of electricity, by 2030...30% of their power will be solar by then ...if not more.

In the USA, as in Asia and Europe, solar farms are being developed to yield GigaWatts...and home owners are encouraged by subsidies to put their own set of panels on their rooves with payback coming from the power companies during over production periods by tieing to the grid. Those subsidies are important as they underwrite the investment for the small players...but others like Pepsi Co. have invested upwards of $40Billion...yes billion...to put solar arrays on their production facilities and eliminate their use of high priced energy...and of course they got their subsidies as well.

But there is a fight brewing in the market based on cheap pricing of panels by the Chinese government owned production facilities ...remember profit is not the main focus of Government controlled Capitalism...and companies in the developed nations are being pushed out of the market by the fully subsidized Chinese panels being shipped world wide.

While there will be strong renewable support by the solar industry in the growth of major energy production capacity, there will come a point where the solar panel production hits the ceiling and instead of breaking through it crashes back to earth. After all, home owners and small businesses expect to collect on these locally installed arrays for 20 or more years... heck, just keep the panels clean and they should continue to generate energy, there are no moving parts and the seals are virtually indestructible. While a wind storm or two, more coming every day with climate change, may call for some repairs and replacements...these panels will produce voltage as long as there is light and reserve voltage on all of those strong solar days.

The point where production falls off is the solar bubble and when it hits there will be a correction in the market. China, Germany, England, the US, and many others will feel it...and unless they have solved the low conversion ratio problem found in solar today, there will be no mass call for replacement panels and only limited productivity in these factories once the bubble breaks.

The point isn't that we will not need Solar Panel production facilities, we will...but we will not need as many fast paced producers and we will find the crush of competition unbearable as it causes business failures due to uncontrolled undercutting of prices without regard to the rules of competitive markets and free trade.

When will the bubble happen...some think it is only a few years off, I'm not sure...after all solar in America is not as exploited a technology as it could be, though it is growing faster than you might think. The real question is "would you put a solar array on your roof if it was not subsidised?" Probably not, which may drive mandating... good for the enviornment, and not bad for the economy ...but not yet being debated out loud in the House or Senate. Perhaps 20 years from now when oil is all but gone, the price of natural gas is higher than we find it today, and transportation is dependant on EV technologies to move us around...perhaps then we will see the US in a real solar push along with the others who were slow or unprepared to do it now, a shame really considering the savings that could be yielded through renewables today...but until then I expect the market will grow, and the bubble will be held off... but when it comes "there will be blood".

The bubble isn't just based on the need for electricity or future market demand...the bubble is based on the rapid ramping up to make panels today and some producers undercutting pricing, even to the point of pushing it below production cost. Afterall, if China comes to the market with their panels priced below what their costs are, can any other developed world manufacturer survive.

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