Let's take a moment and consider the rapid global growth of solar panel development and production. Companies, nations really...have jumped on-board the Solar Express...so to speak...and are making panels at a very rapid pace. Taking Germany as an example, all new buildings must have a solar array on the roof...and in Japan they have declared that they will be off of nuclear, their primary source of electricity, by 2030...30% of their power will be solar by then ...if not more.
In the USA, as in Asia and Europe, solar farms are being developed to yield GigaWatts...and home owners are encouraged by subsidies to put their own set of panels on their rooves with payback coming from the power companies during over production periods by tieing to the grid. Those subsidies are important as they underwrite the investment for the small players...but others like Pepsi Co. have invested upwards of $40Billion...yes billion...to put solar arrays on their production facilities and eliminate their use of high priced energy...and of course they got their subsidies as well.
But there is a fight brewing in the market based on cheap pricing of panels by the Chinese government owned production facilities ...remember profit is not the main focus of Government controlled Capitalism...and companies in the developed nations are being pushed out of the market by the fully subsidized Chinese panels being shipped world wide.
While there will be strong renewable support by the solar industry in the growth of major energy production capacity, there will come a point where the solar panel production hits the ceiling and instead of breaking through it crashes back to earth. After all, home owners and small businesses expect to collect on these locally installed arrays for 20 or more years... heck, just keep the panels clean and they should continue to generate energy, there are no moving parts and the seals are virtually indestructible. While a wind storm or two, more coming every day with climate change, may call for some repairs and replacements...these panels will produce voltage as long as there is light and reserve voltage on all of those strong solar days.
The point where production falls off is the solar bubble and when it hits there will be a correction in the market. China, Germany, England, the US, and many others will feel it...and unless they have solved the low conversion ratio problem found in solar today, there will be no mass call for replacement panels and only limited productivity in these factories once the bubble breaks.
The point isn't that we will not need Solar Panel production facilities, we will...but we will not need as many fast paced producers and we will find the crush of competition unbearable as it causes business failures due to uncontrolled undercutting of prices without regard to the rules of competitive markets and free trade.
When will the bubble happen...some think it is only a few years off, I'm not sure...after all solar in America is not as exploited a technology as it could be, though it is growing faster than you might think. The real question is "would you put a solar array on your roof if it was not subsidised?" Probably not, which may drive mandating... good for the enviornment, and not bad for the economy ...but not yet being debated out loud in the House or Senate. Perhaps 20 years from now when oil is all but gone, the price of natural gas is higher than we find it today, and transportation is dependant on EV technologies to move us around...perhaps then we will see the US in a real solar push along with the others who were slow or unprepared to do it now, a shame really considering the savings that could be yielded through renewables today...but until then I expect the market will grow, and the bubble will be held off... but when it comes "there will be blood".
The bubble isn't just based on the need for electricity or future market demand...the bubble is based on the rapid ramping up to make panels today and some producers undercutting pricing, even to the point of pushing it below production cost. Afterall, if China comes to the market with their panels priced below what their costs are, can any other developed world manufacturer survive.
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P
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